Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Hardcover – January 1, 2014

This book is excellent and the author could see the currently heightened frictions we are witnessing between China and the US miles away. The author describes the dynamics of great power struggles through history and refers us to Thucydides and the Peloponnesian Wars to frame an understanding of the inevitable conflict arising when there is a rising power facing an incumbent power. This book was written in 2017 but it was quite prophetic for the events of 2018 and the dynamics illustrated in the book are a valuable way to think about the current conflict we are witnessing.The author splits the book into four parts. He starts just by framing China's economic development over the past several decades and its current economic might as well as its different structure to the western idea of an ideal socio-economic system. China's growth has been remarkable and remains remarkable and it is important to take stock of its history to understand what form the national ambitions might take. The author then gets into the history of great power conflicts framing the discussion in terms of the Thucydides trap. He discusses the Peloponnesian War and the dynamics of how such conflicts arose benignly. The author details several similar conflicts including Spain and Portugal, US & Great Britain at the turn of the century, WW1 is discussed. The author then discusses China and the US. The author starts by discussing what China and Xi want, which is to restore China to its historic level of greatness. As the current world order was structured without China's influence. CHina legitimately can feel like rules need to be re-written to be more balanced. The author discusses Huntington and the message in the Clash of Civilizations and in particular discusses the deep intrinsic differences between the West and China and conception of right and wrong and the role of the state. The author also goes through the exercise of discussing various fictional states of the world where China and the US stumble into military conflict. They all seem highly plausible reminding the innocent reader that the world is a complex interconnected yet fragile place and we shouldn't trivialize what is required to keep it in balance. The author then gives his optimism about the ability to navigate away from conflict. Obviously the current state of military technology means war is potentially the end of humanity when it comes to nuclear powers. Nonetheless the author highlights that if national objectives are well thought out and the US starts to focus on what is in its vital interest rather than blindly want to hold on to the old status quo, a more honest assessment of mutual accommodation can be possible.The current frictions, manifesting themselves as a trade war, are strong evidence of a great power struggle that has many historical precedents and can be considered the Thucydides trap. Graham Allison writes a very clear overview of how to think about the current challenges faced and the ways to navigate them for mutual benefit. If only he were a current policy advisor instead of an academic as the current administration is in sore need of a clear mind and strategy. If one wants to view the current geopolitical climate in its context, read this book.

It is difficult to imagine a book on foreign policy that can better equip policy-makers and citizens generally for the future than Graham Allison’s Destined for War. To avoid war, we must make a conscious effort to escape Thucydides’ trap. That trap is a stress that can culminate in war “when a rising power threatens to upend a ruling one.” In his classic history of the Peloponnesian war, Thucydides maintained “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable.” Mr. Allison correctly perceives the rise of China as inducing a similar fear in the United States. War, however, according to Mr. Allison, is neither inevitable, nor impossible. In fact, being cognizant of the trap and taking such measures as can reasonably be taken to avoid it are the keys to escaping war’s inevitability.Part I of his book summarizes China’s ascent, a topic revisited in rich detail in Part III, and Part II provides historical background to Thucydides’ trap and an overview of sixteen cases during the past five hundred years “in which an ascending power challenges an established power.” Twelve resulted in war.Chapter 6 of Part III provides a fascinating, if unsettling, account of China’s aspirations under President Xi Jinping. Under Xi, what China wants will sound only too familiar to readers: “Make China Great Again” or, in a later formulation, “Make China Proud Again.” Allison’s sketch of Xi’s life is fascinating. Xi, a man clever and wise enough to have been mentored by Singapore’s great leader, Kuan Yew Lee, is very much the “self-made man” uniformly beloved in this country. Xi is no idle dreamer. “To achieve the great revival of the Chinese nation” Xi maintains that China “must ensure there is unison between a prosperous country and a strong military.”The chapter “From Here to War” is an engrossing account of various scenarios that might well lead to war. Having skated the surface of such scenario development some years ago, I was struck at how the emergence of cyber warfare can affect the perception of leaders and alter the outcome of hostilities. In fact, one difficulty is that the scenarios leading to war seem far more powerful - that is, they appear more likely - than the paths to peace covered near the book’s end. In making that claim, I do not intend to convey the impression that this book is a doomsday read. It’s not. What it does teach us is that policy-makers must undertake a serious effort toward the objective of escaping Thucydides’ trap. That, in turn, will entail the discipline of not to being overly distracted by the endless cycle of events in the Middle East.This is a wide ranging text, and the wisdom it imparts reflects the decades of experience Mr. Allison brings to the task, both as a long serving Harvard academic and an advisor to the defense departments of both parties. I cannot recommend this book highly enough.