The Future in Plain Sight: A Look at Our Planet in the Year 2050

I read this book quite a while ago and have thought about it often over the years. It is brilliant and so pertinent today. I loaned my copy to someone and realized I wanted to re-read the book so bought another one. It's that kind of book. You want to read it carefully and then read it again.

A comprehensive and sobering overview of current trends apt to disrupt life in the near future. Thought provoking and challenging. A good companion to Jared Diamond's work ("Collapse," "Guns, Germs and Steel," etc.)The original subtitle of this book was "Nine clues to the coming instability." One must infer that the revision to "The Rise of the 'True Believers' and other clues to the coming instability" is a post 9-11 addition to boost sales. (The chapter about fundamentalist religious movements was already in place.) I mention this by way of pointing out that this book as originally written was NOT principally about the rise of Islam or retrograde Christianity. That's just one of the nine and last on the list to boot. I read the 1998 edition and don't know how (or if) the author might have restructured this 2002 iteration--judging from other reviews I don't think he made significant changes.In the first ten chapters Linden examines the following trends: 1)volatility in the money market--including the (then) recent meltdowns in Asia and Mexico; 2)massive growth of very poor cities; 3)the ongoing population explosion; 4)the increasing gulf between rich and poor; 5)Antarctic melting; 6)the current extinction spasm; 7)food shortfalls; 8)the resurgence of infectious diseases; and 9)the rise of true believers. His analysis is thoughtful and insightful, directing readers' attention to specific shifts that most of us probably missed in the rush of daily news. The author then lays out a handful of plausible scenarios for life in 2050 if current trends continue.It is easy to diss those who attempt to read today's tea leaves and weave a tale about tomorrow. Linden quotes Cicero: "No soothsayer should be able to look at another soothsayer without laughing." In this case Linden has overlooked only one elephant in our communal living room--but it is a biggie. The end of low cost petroleum (often referred to as the peak oil phenomenon) was well known to many of us way back in the 1980s, and, of course, Hubbert made his extremely accurate predictions back in the 1950s. Though Linden refers to resource depletion in the broad sense, the collapse of oil that is beginning now will have a devastating impact on modern technological civilizations.Altogether, however, a very worthwhile read.

Author Linden's basic premise is that history fluctuates between periods of stability and instability. The last half of the 20th century was stable. The first half of the 21st promises to be anything but stable. The book is tremendously well thought out, and persuasive.Linden visits nine areas, including climate change, increased population and larger cities, resource depletion, environmental degradation, religious fundamentalism/fanaticism, economic instability, etc. These analyses are then followed by realistic, but speculative, scenarios describing life in the event of the anticipated change. Author Linden does an excellent job in avoiding the Cassandra-style, apocalyptic language so common to writers in this area. Surely, the facts alone are sufficient, and Linden is to be praised for discerning the difference.All are well done, but I was particularly impressed by the chapter on religious fundmentalism. As Linden so carefully describes matters, this fundamentalism, Christian or Muslim, is a response to the scientific and economic uncertainty of today's society. The true believer yearns to return to a simpler, more certain, time, and is perfectly willing to throw out the baby with the bath water to get it, including equal rights, scientific advances, better living conditions, etc. Anyone skeptical of this statement is invited to consider Iran, the Taliban, Creationism, and the like. I have not found Linden's peer in describing the origin and effects of religious fundamentalism on society as we know it. The whole book is more than worth it for this one chapter alone. Every thinking person should read it.In short, the book is an outstanding addition to anyone's library. I recommend it very highly.

Borrowed this book from the library just because I was borrowing the Parrot's Lament (another of his books). If for no other reason, one should read this book to marvel that in 1999 he's writing about periodic financial crises. Primarily currency crises to be sure, but here he is discussing bailouts and "moral hazard" and gosh, that's the situation we're in now aren't we?Economic migration and the likelihood of unrest if there is widespread unemployment in a geographic region (resource depletion and overpopulation would be related this) is another topic he raises and today we can see our migrant workers returning to points south or back to India or China and for years my mother in Michigan has been telling me anecdotes about the unemployed who are financially trapped in Michigan. Meanwhile, a friend in Shanghai writes that he's watching with interest and trepidation how 200 million migrant workers (now unemployed) in China will express their social frustration. The topics he raised in 1999 when this book was published seem very prescient in light of the news over the past year. Certainly he's not the only such writer, but it was certainly good for me to come across this book and I commend it to you.