Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe Paperback – February 16, 2016

A very fascinating book; spell bounding with each and every turn. The title is a little misleading. I could see how people might think it is a psychic book telling us all when and where the new war will be. The book isn't quite that. Half the book is a very analytical analysis of the European mind. He goes through his personal story, which is very representative of millions of others at this time. It goes to show the impact of politics, news events, culture and other things to shape one's perspective. Then he does a deep review of Europe since 1900. Mr Friedman uses that same tool he used to tell his story to tell Europe's story. This gives the reader a new understanding of events. You can see how the past shapes the future.The second half of the book he goes through the various hot spots he thinks might flare up. Some of these sites are obvious, some are not. Many of the sites have long historical ties to the past. As he tells these stories he doesn't say this will happen when. He gives the readers a broad base of knowledge of the past and why it occurs. Through that you can see how countries go to war, because they feel they can gain, or have no other option. This new technique helps the reader view the issues in a new way.His last paragraph in the book is very shocking to some. He defines war as not the surprise but as an act of will. He said, " Humans do not fight wars because they are fools or have not learned a lesson. They know the pain that is coming. They fight because they must, because reality has forced them to do so".I do think any reader after reading this will view the world differently than when you started the book.

Do you want to better understand the European Union and its fate?Can you explain in short words why Germany wants to have Greece remaining in the EU and the EUR, whatever it costs?If you want comprehensive answers to all these questions and more, then this is a book for you: "Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe" by George Friedman.Friedman's objectivesFriedman sets out the following questions that he wanted to answer with his book:How did Europe achieve global domination, politically, militarily, economically, and intellectually?What was the flaw in Europe that caused it to throw away this domination between 1914 and 1945? andIs the period of peace that followed 1945 what the future of Europe will look like?The last question is the most important one for Friedman.His answer - in short - is: "No, it is not very likely that there will be continued peace throughout Europe".What is so special with this book?Friedman covered the big picture by providing detailed support, country by country. At the same time he lays open his working techniques which made him one of the very few internationally recognized geopoliticians.George Friedman also reveals a lot of himself. He is letting the reader into his life, he tells the exciting story of his family's escape from persecution in WW II Hungary. And his starting point is impressive. He was born in Hungary, escaped with his family to the USA, and then travelled almost all European and close-European countries that he is writing about in his book.This obviously shaped him to become someone who comes close to a world citizen, although he is usually putting the USA in the first place. I would not call this "arrogant" but one can throughout the entire book see that Friedman sees the USA to be the successor of Europe's domination of the world. And this is what this book has in common with most other books in the area of geopolitics, the USA are take as the center of the geopolitical universe and everything else follows from there.Anything missing in the book?If Friedman completely left out one significant point in his book then it is the future of manufacturing and its implication on geopolitics. Friedman emphasizes several times on international sea trade and the importance of protecting an empire's sea trade (namely the one of the USA) with a navy, but he does not recognize that the future of 3D printing and rapid machining will bring more decentralized manufacture and less international logistics. It is yet to be seen if the USA will be able to continue in the future maintaining a navy that can invade any place of the world within 24 hours.And, of course, the Brexit is not captured in Friedman's book because this event is too young. I got the second edition of November 2015, which has updates about the ongoing refugee invasion, and Friedman already has somewhat anticipated the Brexit in chapter 15 of his book. But he qualifies this view with the following statement:"The Europeans see the British as being different from them. The Americans see the British as different from themselves as well. The British see themselves as both unique and needing to have a foot in each camp."George Friedman's professional backgroundGeorge Friedman is the founder and chairman of a commercial company that specializes in geopolitical forecasting. Before that he was the chairman of the global intelligence company Stratfor, which he founded back in 1996. This explains the style of the present book, George Friedman is surely a seasoned expert in geopolitics.Important ideas to rememberAccording to Friedman, Germany - and not France - plays a central role in Europe. One of his main points is that the EU created an only temporary abatement of Europe's core problems, which are nationalism and power - in particular German power. According to him, we are now in a period where that abatement is in the process of failing.Friedman summarizes the role of the USA as follows, which is probably true but certainly diffiult to swallow for some:"After the war, the United States became the first power to control all the world's oceans. It had expelled the Japanese from the Pacific - and the British and the French as well. It now dominated the North Atlantic, and through NATO, what was left of the Royal Navy was, in part at least, under American command. It was a maritime empire, and the British no longer controlled the sea lanes."This is only one example for Friedman's mercilessly straight approach in his book. He presents facts in order to back up his theories and ideas, regardless of whether these facts hurt or not.Here is one more merciless slap, right in the face of one-world order supporters:"... the European Union ... is crumbling. There are four European Unions. There are the German states (Germany and Austria), the rest of northern Europe, the Mediterranean states, and the states in the borderland. The latter face the retaking of their old borderlands by Russia. The Mediterranean Europeans face massive unemployment experienced by Americans in the Great Depression. The northern European states are doing better but none are doing as well as the Germans."Being of German origin myself, I can say that this book is not a bad read at all, but I may be biased ...Key facts of this bookThis book is so much filled with a large variety of facts that it is difficult to select which facts are the most important ones.What was certainly new for me was the fact that the British - under tremendous war pressure from Germany after the fall of France - agreed to take 50 old destroyers from the USA, in return of a 99-year lease of land and bases, including the eastern Bahamas, the southern coast of Jamaica, St. Lucia, western Trinidad, Antigua, parts of British Guiana and basing rights in Bermuda and Newfoundland.Letting the Greeks off the EU hook would not hurt Germany or the EU at all, as Greece is only 2 percent of Europe's total economy. But it would set a precedent that would endanger the entire European project. And this cannot be as - this is an important fact - half of Germany's exports goes to other EU countries, and exports make half of Germany's total GDP. And this with Germany being the world's third largest single exporting nation. This is unique within the EU. So what is good for Germany may not be good for the rest of the EU and vice versa.ConclusionIn very short words, what I took from Friedman's book is this: if one has to decide on expanding his business into Europe, then Germany, Austria and Switzerland are surely top tier candidates, followed by the nordic countries. The UK - and with it the Netherlands - are playing in a different but still very attractive league. The remainder of Europe should be taken with a pinch of salt, to put it diplomatically. And don't bet the farm on that there will not be a war in Europe again, especially along the Russian border.Whether you like these ideas or agree with them or not, this book is a must read if you are interested in Europe's future.

This is a masterful book. Friedman is from the realist school of diplomatic relations. He analyses with great clarity and some subtly how Europe's geography, fragmentation, historical animosities and overcrowding mean that war and conflict cannot be ended forever, however much humans intellectually desire this.Friedman's background makes him particularly pessimistic. Chapter One, which describes how his family managed to escape from Hungary after the war, is particularly dramatic and moving. It is hardly surprising that he concludes that Europe's historical disease is a little like a cancer that has been cut away but is always at risk of returning. The cells that got left behind when the surgeon removed the after 1945 are most likely to reappear in Ukraine, the Caucuses and the other "borderlands", and Friedman describes the dynamics of these regions carefully. His writing style is also particularly pleasing, lucid and uncomplicated.However, the book's subtitle "The Emerging Crisis in Europe" is rather more pessimistic than the book itself. In his conclusion, Friedman asks "Will Europe return to its historical ways?" of conflict, which cumulated in the 31 years war of 1914 to 1945. And he concludes that the answer must be qualified, not least since it is the interest of the United States to suppress conflict.Nonetheless, this is an important book. I read it from cover to cover and, though I am European, learned much. Friedman provides a lot of individual insights, many based on his personal experiences. His message is pessimistic, but it is hard to argue with his basic thesis that the European Union cannot reinvent geography or human nature. He concludes: "underneath the surface, the engine of conflict--a romantic nationalism that challenges the legitimacy of transferring authority to multinational institutions and resurrects old national conflicts--is stirring".

The subtitle my seem a bit alarmist and it is not really the gist of the book. The book is an amazingly easy read and an excellent primer on Europe's historic geographical, political, and ethnic fault lines. After reading this one has a much clearer understanding of the historical contexts in which European events have played out and how they are playing out in the present and will in Europe's future. If you've wondered why certain areas of Europe seem to be perennial 'hot spots' - from the Baltics to the Donbas to the Balkans - this book will give you the information and perspective to understands the underlying reasons.

Es un autor muy interesante y todos sus libros son muy entretenidos, incluso para aquellos a quienes no les interese los temas geopolíticos. En este libro se avanzan algunos de los eventos que está viviendo Europa en la actualidad, como Ucrania, el Brexit, el giro hacia la derecha en la UE, etc. Sin duda, es un libro para complementar la visión del mundo y lo que acarreará el futuro inmediato.

The future of Europe from the analysis of the last 100 years. The 31 years from 1914 to 1918 marked the end of Europe as a continent that ruled the world, to begin the world government of the United States. The story allows us to predict what will be the flashpoint, the starting points of the next fire that will shape the future of Europes. As always, visionary.

I found this a very interesting read. Being English and too young to remember the cold war this book was something of a wake up call insofar as having it pointed out to me that todays European peace and solidarity is by no means certain. This book is accessible to all. It is not academically written and reads much like you've corned George Friedman in the pub and asked him 'Europe aye? Funny old bag isn't it?' and he has taken a sip of beer, nodded, smiled, and then not shut up for 3 hours.A couple of errors I've noticed for correction in the next printing run:It's stated that Britain's population is over 90 million. It is more like 65million now and about 45million or less during the WWII.'Operation Red' was the 1930's US plan to invade Canada to get at the British Empire and not the US plan to counter a British invasion. Operation Red was aggressive not defensive.

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