Advanced Advantage Play: Beating and Safeguarding Modern Casino Table Games, Side Bets and Promotions

I reviewed the first book and have nothing else to add about the new version, as the old one was valuable to my previous teams the new one will be valuable to my current team. Great work by Dr. Jacobson!

TLDR:This book contains detailed and accurate analysis of dozens of blackjack (BJ) and baccarat side bets. It is a good book for casino operators to stop advantage players (APs.) It is not a good book for APs, because the side bets available in real life are usually a little different from the ones studied in the book. And even so, an AP can make more money doing regular blackjack card counting. Advanced techniques like hole carding and edge sorting are covered, but you have to be Rain Man to use these methods. As an amateur BJ card counter (150 hours of seat time) with experience writing my own card counting computer simulations, I enjoyed the book very much, but I found literally nothing in it that I could use in real life in a casino.Detailed review:This book used to cost several hundred dollars on Amazon. Just as I was about to post this review (February 2020), I learned that the author had come out with a second printing for $50. Much of my motivation for writing this extensive review was to let a potential buyer know, in detail, what he would get for almost a thousand dollars. With the price now down to a reasonable amount, this motivation is gone. But since I spent so much time writing the review, here it is anyway!The author is a Ph.D. and retired math and computer science professor. Throughout the book, he describes his counting systems, simulation parameters, and results in great detail. It is clear that he knows what he is doing. Although I did not verify any of his results, I see absolutely no reason to distrust his work.This is not a book for learning how to count cards. It seems to be an unspoken assumption that you already know how to do this.There are dozens of chapters on BJ side bets. For each one the author generally details the count system that he used, the trigger count, and sometimes even how he created the count system (effect of removal (EOR) method.) His results usually include percent edge, bet frequency, and units won per 100 hands. He often reports standard deviations, and usually repeats the analysis for various numbers of decks and penetrations.The idea is that you are an AP and you've found a side bet, and you want to know if it is worth playing. Although the side bets I have encountered in real-life casinos are covered in the book, they were always slightly different than the side bets the author analyzed. For example, maybe a side bet's payout in real life is 5:1, but the book's analysis assumes 6:1. Seemingly small differences like this can have big effects. Unfortunately, for me personally, literally none of the analysis in the book was applicable to the side bets available to me in real life.If I were to travel around, could I find a side bet that was exactly the same as the one that was analyzed in the book? Maybe, but even then it would not be worth it. Side bets usually have small bet limits, i.e. $25 or $50, whereas BJ bet limits are almost always at least $500 and often up to a few thousand dollars. So although the vast majority (all?) of the side bets in the book had positive expectation value (using a specially designed count system of course, which the author tells you), when considering bet limits, I did not find a single side bet in the book that was as good as regular BJ card counting.The book also suffers from the same sort of "inflation" found in almost all BJ books. The rounds per hour and penetrations used in the book's simulations are way higher than one will typically find in a real casino. Consider rounds per hour. Profit is proportional to it. A realistic number is 70, but the author usually assumes 200. You would have to play three spots to achieve this, which many casinos don't allow. If the book has a result for 200 rounds hour with a $100 bet size, but your casino only allows $25 for the side bet, and you can only get one spot at 70 rounds per hour, then your results will be about 1/12 the size of those reported in the book. (Similar arguments can be made for overestimating penetration, although they are more complicated because the relationship between penetration and profit is non-linear.)Next are chapters about baccarat and baccarat side bets. The author states that the edge for counting baccarat is so tiny, that even playing many rounds per hour, and making very big bets, it would net only a few dollars per hour. As for baccarat side bets, the problem is the same as for BJ. The payouts at your casino are probably a little different than the ones used in the book's analysis, and at the end of the day, none of the side bets is as good as regular BJ card counting.I suppose one can make the argument that these side bets are better than regular BJ card counting in the sense that they might draw less heat, so the player could get more seat time. Maybe. Something to think about. Or one might count and play BJ, and simultaneously count and play the side bet, i.e. the side bet is in addition to (not instead of) regular BJ. But this requires running two count systems at the same time. Seems hard/impossible.Much of the remainder of the book is "Rain Man" territory. Most people with some discipline and effort (and bankroll!) can do regular BJ card counting. But this last part of the book is mostly about techniques like edge sorting, hole carding, and shuffle tracking. Much like there are men out there who can spin seven basketballs at a time on themselves, I'm sure there are some people who can use these advanced techniques. I am not one of them. You are probably not one of them either.Hole carding is when a weak/tired dealer accidentally exposes a card that is supposed to be hidden, i.e., the dealer's hole card in blackjack. Edge sorting exploits the fact that when playing cards are manufactured, the patterns on the back of the cards might be slightly different on one edge than the other. The idea is to rotate face cards one way, and non-face cards the other way. But in addition to having to perceive the small manufacturing defects, and accounting for the fact that in many games the player can't even touch the cards, the player will also have to overcome standard shuffling techniques that are designed to stop edge sorting. In addition, the legality of edge sorting seems to be a matter of debate.The book has a lot of analysis of the such-and-such game assuming you know one of the hidden cards. The profit potentials are through the roof, of course. But how many hundreds or thousands of hours does it take to find a dealer that is flashing a hole card? Even so can you see it, or do you need a buddy (with whom you will have to share profits) on the other side of the pit to signal you? And if you can see it, can you exploit it? If you have an 18, and you know the dealer has a 19 (because you saw the hole card) are you going to hit? The pit's going to freak if you do that. The author even states (in the context of some sort of 3-card poker game) that many APs have lost a lot trying to hole card, for example, by mistaking a jack for a king, or an ace for a two or a three.Another topic is collusion. The one example from the book that I remember is a poker variant, in which players can gain a significant edge if they signal to one another what their cards are. This one seems to at least be doable, but it nonetheless requires at least four other people to do it with. If I recall correctly, all collusion examples in the book required trained partners.Also covered are loss rebates, in which the player negotiates with the casino that if he loses, he'll get a certain percentage back. This favorable treatment is usually reserved for very high rollers, and there is at least one example in the book of a casino in Atlantic City that reneged on the deal because it suspected the player of being an AP. I personally have no clue how to set this up in real life.Bonuses and promotions are covered too: things like five-card Charlie bonuses, match play, free play, and comps. One interesting case was a bonus that paid out if the player busted with a 22. It turns out that the way it was set up, APs would actually bust ON PURPOSE, because the 22 bust payout was so large, that they could get an edge doing this. 2:1 BJ on Father's Day is another example. Obviously oddball poorly designed promotions like these don't last long. And they probably won't be at a casino near you, so right out of the box you're out a few hundred dollars in travel expenses. Some promotions pay out in casino points, so I guess you can go to the gift shop, get a smartphone and sell it on eBay? I'm skeptical that the process of monitoring casino ads, figuring out a scheme and then chasing down the promotion/bonus is better than regular BJ card counting. It also starts to feel like coupon clipping at some point, which, let's be honest, is not exactly what inspired us to get into card counting in the first place. But I concede that these moves are not in the "Rain Man" category, i.e., a reasonably smart/diligent person could do these things and possibly get some benefit.This book is good for casino operators. The author is very clear that he is presenting his results for everybody: players and casinos alike. At the end of almost every analysis, he tells the casinos what to do to stop APs from exploiting that particular game. And it is usually something pretty easy, like make the payouts a little smaller, and, basically, problem solved.The author also shows how to use the effect of removal (EOR) method for designing count systems, and goes into the concept of computer perfect play. These may be of interest to people who want to design their own count systems or who like to write their own simulations.Despite my mostly negative sounding review, I am glad I read this book, and I have a lot of respect for the author and his expertise. I was going to give three stars, but since the book now has a normal price, I will give four. I stop short of the fifth star, because I just couldn’t find anything of practical use (from an AP’s viewpoint) in the book.